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Mid-decade Redistricting Battle Unfolds Ahead of 2026 Elections

  • Writer: Leana Sung
    Leana Sung
  • Aug 28
  • 4 min read
(Clay Banks/Unsplash)
(Clay Banks/Unsplash)

Redistricting in Texas


The Texas state legislature has moved forward with a plan to redraw districts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, hoping to pick up more seats in the House of Representatives and secure the Republican majority there. This plan was pushed for by Trump, the success of whose legislative agenda will be affected by the outcome of the 2026 election. In addition to the current Republican majority in the House being quite slim, midterm elections historically favor the minority party. The Texas legislature’s actions are unusual, as redrawing districts is typically done once per decade, after the release of census data. Redistricting mid-decade is banned in some states, as it’s more likely to be motivated by partisan maneuvering for control rather than fairly reflecting population changes.


In response, Texas Democrats walked out on August 3 to prevent the Texas House of Representatives from achieving the two-thirds quorum necessary to work on official business, such as approving the new maps.


Democratic states like Illinois and California, have accused Republicans of threatening democracy, participating in racial gerrymandering to target and weaken the power of Black and Hispanic voters, or shielding themselves from voter outrage during the midterm elections. In turn, Republicans have accused the absentee Democrats of abandoning their duties. Some defended the redistricting effort as a response to other gerrymanders in Democratic states. While the Texas Democrats were gone, they faced $500 daily fines and Texas Governor, Greg Abbott, threatened to remove them from office or withhold pay, in addition to ordering their arrests. On August 18, they returned, ending a two-week delay. The plan was approved by the Texas Senate on August 23, and Texas governor Greg Abbott has promised to sign it, after which the maps will take effect.


Special election in California


Beyond Texas, California and other states with Democratic state leadership have responded by pursuing their own gerrymanders to secure more Democratic seats in the House of Representatives. In California, a ballot measure to circumvent the usual process for redistricting, which is done by an independent and bipartisan commission, and use a new, gerrymandered map was approved on August 21. The new California map would likely give the Democrats 5 more seats in the House, but it requires voters to approve it in a special election on November 4 before it can take effect. Republicans have criticized the measure as being both corrupt and a waste of money on a special election, while Democrats have defended it as a temporary emergency measure to counter the Texas map. The California map would only go into effect if other states changed their own maps to favor Republicans, and (if approved) would stay in effect for the 2026 midterm, 2028 presidential, and 2030 midterm elections. After the 2030 census, the independent commission would resume control of redrawing district maps.


Why does this matter going forward?


The events in Texas and California have the potential to trigger a waterfall of mid-decade redistricting efforts in states led by both political parties. Democrats in New York, Illinois, Maryland, and Wisconsin and Republicans in Missouri, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and Kansas have moved or expressed openness to the idea of redrawing their own maps, although Ohio would have to redraw district maps before the 2026 midterms regardless, as their previous map was approved with no Democratic votes.


Different state processes for redistricting are resulting in different pathways for each state to pursue. For example, in New York, the state constitution bans mid-decade redistricting. Like California, an independent commission is usually responsible for drawing maps. Circumventing that would necessitate a constitutional amendment, so a new map couldn’t go into effect before the 2028 presidential election. In Florida, the state constitution bans drawing districts for purely partisan reasons, creating a legal hurdle if Republicans attempt to gerrymander there. In Illinois, gerrymandering has already favored the Democrats to such an extent that a more aggressive map would be difficult to achieve, while in Maryland, Democrats, who hold 7 out of the 8 districts, could pick up only one more seat at most. Despite that, because California and Texas may cancel out each other’s efforts, changes in smaller states may become more significant.


One concern in the scramble to pursue mid-decade redistricting is the elimination of competitive districts across the country. Gerrymandering results in fewer competitive districts by nature, and the number of these districts is already small. Republicans are favored in a national gerrymandering war. Oregon, Illinois, and Maryland are the only Democratic states that can pass a new map without amending the state Constitution or calling a special election, but over a dozen Republican states have this ability. In general, Republican-led states have fewer restrictions on redistricting and fewer independent commissions controlling redistricting. The results of a redistricting war could have a significant impact in determining who controls the House after the 2026 elections, because the Republican majority is already slim.


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